Author Topic: Oh my, so much statistical noise! (Obama job rating)  (Read 4223 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline CrAz3D

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10184
    • View Profile
Oh my, so much statistical noise! (Obama job rating)
« on: July 09, 2009, 01:45:19 pm »
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/jobapproval-obama.php?xml=/flashcharts/content/xml/Obama44JobApproval.xml&choices=Approve,Disapprove&phone&ivr&internet&mail&smoothing&from_date&to_date&min_pct&max_pct&grid&points&trends&lines

yeah, no trend there at all ::).

Its good to see that America is coming around to reality, and off the cloud of "hope & change."
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/jul/03/powell-airs-doubts-on-obama-agenda/

Not to mention even Biden contradicts everything Obama says (or, well, Obama has to contradict everything Biden says)

Offline Warrior

  • supreme mac daddy of trolls
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7503
  • One for a Dime two for a Quarter!
    • View Profile
Re: Oh my, so much statistical noise! (Obama job rating)
« Reply #1 on: July 09, 2009, 02:22:48 pm »
Interesting chart, but you read too much into the slant of the line. You should know when constructive graphs how misleading they can be, given the scale applied. Since the scale is at 5% intervals, even statistical noise like his fluctuations from 69% to 60% are seen as dramatic shifts.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/121511/Obama-Averages-61-Job-Approval-June.aspx

Gallup shows his month to month averages, and he had another month where his average was 62%, then it shot right back up. He's stayed largely the same (Once his Inagural Honeymoon died down).

Also, look at the breakdown by party, his fluctuations stem from Republicans agreeing/disagreeing with his policies, and independents shifting slightly. His support is still rock solid amongst Dems and Independents though.
One must ask oneself: "do I will trolling to become a universal law?" And then when one realizes "yes, I do will it to be such," one feels completely justified.
-- from Groundwork for the Metaphysics of Trolling

Offline CrAz3D

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10184
    • View Profile
Re: Oh my, so much statistical noise! (Obama job rating)
« Reply #2 on: July 09, 2009, 05:17:17 pm »
so a 5 point drop is still just "noise?"

Offline Warrior

  • supreme mac daddy of trolls
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7503
  • One for a Dime two for a Quarter!
    • View Profile
Re: Oh my, so much statistical noise! (Obama job rating)
« Reply #3 on: July 09, 2009, 06:12:36 pm »
Yes, when it goes from 60 to 69 to 65 to 60 to 65 to 69, that is indeed statistical noise. Those are day to day numbers, from various polling samples, and a margin of error of 3 points..

One must ask oneself: "do I will trolling to become a universal law?" And then when one realizes "yes, I do will it to be such," one feels completely justified.
-- from Groundwork for the Metaphysics of Trolling

Offline CrAz3D

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10184
    • View Profile
Re: Oh my, so much statistical noise! (Obama job rating)
« Reply #4 on: July 13, 2009, 04:37:20 pm »
current events affect day-to-day numbers.  average still dropping

Offline Warrior

  • supreme mac daddy of trolls
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7503
  • One for a Dime two for a Quarter!
    • View Profile
Re: Oh my, so much statistical noise! (Obama job rating)
« Reply #5 on: July 13, 2009, 05:15:12 pm »
current events affect day-to-day numbers. average still dropping

You just come up with a new bullshit point once I knock down your old bullshit point.
One must ask oneself: "do I will trolling to become a universal law?" And then when one realizes "yes, I do will it to be such," one feels completely justified.
-- from Groundwork for the Metaphysics of Trolling


Offline Warrior

  • supreme mac daddy of trolls
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7503
  • One for a Dime two for a Quarter!
    • View Profile
Re: Oh my, so much statistical noise! (Obama job rating)
« Reply #7 on: July 13, 2009, 08:39:18 pm »
Interesting chart, but you read too much into the slant of the line. You should know when constructive graphs how misleading they can be, given the scale applied. Since the scale is at 5% intervals, even statistical noise like his fluctuations from 69% to 60% are seen as dramatic shifts.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/121511/Obama-Averages-61-Job-Approval-June.aspx

Gallup shows his month to month averages, and he had another month where his average was 62%, then it shot right back up. He's stayed largely the same (Once his Inagural Honeymoon died down).

Also, look at the breakdown by party, his fluctuations stem from Republicans agreeing/disagreeing with his policies, and independents shifting slightly. His support is still rock solid amongst Dems and Independents though.

Be smart please.
One must ask oneself: "do I will trolling to become a universal law?" And then when one realizes "yes, I do will it to be such," one feels completely justified.
-- from Groundwork for the Metaphysics of Trolling